by Ross Ulbricht
After my arrest on October 1st 2013, the price of a bitcoin shot up to over $1,000 from just over $100. After that, it entered its longest bear market up to that point. It dropped ~86% down to ~$175 in a little over a year. I wasn’t paying much attention to it, focused as I was on my case, but every now and then, I’d see a chart or someone would mention the price. From that meager data, I still had a strong intuition around the ~$175 low that the bear market was over and Bitcoin would continue its meteoric rise.
At the time however, I kept my thoughts to myself. I doubted myself because I lacked so much information and didn’t want to mislead anyone on just a hunch. My hunch turned out to be correct and Bitcoin went on a major bull run up to ~$20,000. As it approached this peak, many people around me started asking about how to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. There were magazine articles and radio shows. The hype made it all the way in to maximum security federal prison. Again I had a strong intuition, this time that a major high was near. Unlike last time, I shared my thoughts with some people close to me and was able to help them cash out close to the peak.
I began to wonder how I was able to call with such precision the last two major turning points in Bitcoin’s price. I realized that my distance from the market is more blessing than curse. With all the day-to-day news and market info filtered out, I was only seeing the big picture, so my intuition had a chance to be heard. It also helps that my favorite method of market analysis, based on the Elliot Wave Theory, is perfect for Bitcoin. It provided the right context for these insights to arise.
I don’t think we are at a turning point of the same magnitude as the last two calls I made, but I do have some thoughts about the possible routes the price could take in the coming months and years. I’m not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. I am not responsible for any actions you take based on the information provided. I do hope you enjoy it though. My next post is a short primer on Elliot Wave Theory so you can follow what I am talking about. If you are already familiar with Elliot Wave, skip to this post on the charts we will use when looking at the Bitcoin market.